Værmelding for Eldridge
Advarsler
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Hydrologic Outlook issued February 21 at 2:41PM CST by NWS Bismarck NDESFBISMuch of North Dakota will be going into late February withconsecutive days of unseasonably warm temperatures in the forecast.Highs well above freezing across the southwest and south-central arelikely with those warm temperatures decreasing to around freezing,or just above freezing in the northwestern and north-centralcounties. In short, the modest snowpack south and west of a linefrom Williams County, through southern Ward County, and on down toJamestown will melt over the remainder of February into early March.In general, there is not enough water in the above snowpack towarrant significant concerns with flooding. However, there are someconcerns with ice stability and the potential for ice jams on someof North Dakota's larger rivers.By geographic area, here are the concerns and most likely effects ofthe incoming warm weather:The Souris River Basin...The Souris River Basin is the least likely of the major watershedsof western and central North Dakota to experience significantmelting. However, it has some of the most snow and water equivalentin the snowpack. Temperatures in this area will be high enough tosee at least some melting of the snow, but the heaviest snowpack inthe Turtle Mountain area should also prove to be the most resilient.Nonetheless, an early softening of the ice along the shorelines ofrivers and lakes can create hazardous conditions for recreationalusers on the Souris and small lakes in the area. This will bemagnified where direct sunlight enhances the warming on exposedshorelines.The James River Basin...Only the James and Pipestem watersheds above Jamestown have a nearnormal snowpack, especially in the headwaters area. This snowpackwill likely gradually melt and produce some runoff into both theJames River and Pipestem Creek towards late February, but thepotential for minor flooding would appear to be normal to slightlybelow normal. The James River below Interstate 94 does not have muchwater in the snowpack, and little risk of flooding is expected.Missouri River Tributaries below Garrison Dam...The thin snowpack in these watersheds are not likely to createflooding and only modest runoff can be generated without moreprecipitation, and there are only very modest chances of relativelyminor amounts of precipitation going through late February. It islikely these watersheds, including the Knife, Heart, and Cannonballrivers along with Painted Woods, Apple, and Beaver creeks will losetheir snow with only minor rises in those streams. It is notexpected that rises in these streams will be enough to break up theice, but safe access to river ice will likely decrease going intolate February and early March.The Missouri and Yellowstone rivers west of Williston...This may be the most affected waters going forward. The YellowstoneRiver basin in Montana will be undergoing a similar warm spell andit also has a more robust snowpack. As this snowpack melts, runoffwill make it into the Yellowstone and Missouri rivers of easternMontana and western North Dakota. Non-trivial rises in these streamsshould be expected, along with a high potential for increasinglyunstable ice. As the region gets closer to the end of February,recreational users of these rivers along with people who live nearthem should be vigilant for the potential of higher flows and icejams.The Little Missouri River...At least a modest amount of runoff should be generated in the LittleMissouri River along its path from Wyoming and on up through westernNorth Dakota. High water is not expected, unless enough flow isgenerated to begin breaking up the river ice. While this is arelatively low concern for now, there is at least a nominal risk ofice jams.The Missouri River below Garrison Dam...Due to recent extreme cold weather, the ice cover on the MissouriRiver below Garrison Dam is about as much as ever develops during agiven winter. Even with the incoming warm weather, it will take afew weeks to clear the Missouri River of its ice all the way downthrough the Bismarck/Mandan area. This leaves this portion of theriver vulnerable to ice jams, especially if one or more of itstributaries were to generate enough flow to try and discharge itsice load into the Missouri River before the Missouri is itselflargely ice free. Since there does not appear to be sufficient waterin the local snowpack to make this a reasonable outcome, one willneed to monitor the weather forecast for large rainfall events.Importantly, there is NO such large rainstorm in the currentforecast.
National Weather Service
Værmelding for Eldridge
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-6 °C
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Klarvær
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Lufttrykk
Duggpunkt
Luftfuktighet
Sikt
Soloppgang
Solnedgang
Daglengde
Per
-10°
1016.3 hPa
-8°
86%
16 km
07:27
18:09
10 h 42 min
22/02 5:56 am
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