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Tropical Cyclone Alert : Tropical Storm Marce (YINXING)“MARCE” FURTHER INTENSIFIES OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF BICOL REGION.Location of eye/center : The center of Tropical Storm MARCE was estimated based on all available data at at 740 km East of Virac, Catanduanes (13.1, 131.0).Strength : Maximum winds of 85 kph near the centerand gustiness of up to 105 kph.Forecast movement : Forecast to move West Northwestward at 30 kphForecast position : Nov 05, 2024 02:00 AM - 790 km East of Infanta, QuezonNov 05, 2024 02:00 PM - 510 km East of Casiguran, AuroraNov 06, 2024 02:00 AM - 420 km East of Tuguegarao City, CagayanNov 06, 2024 02:00 PM - 345 km East of Aparri, CagayanNov 07, 2024 02:00 AM - 250 km East of Aparri, CagayanNov 07, 2024 02:00 PM - 135 km East Northeast of Aparri, CagayanNov 08, 2024 02:00 PM - 90 km Northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos NorteNov 09, 2024 02:00 PM - 385 km West of Calayan, Cagayan (OUTSIDE PAR)HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREASHeavy Rainfall Outlook As MARCE moves northwestward within the PAR region, it may enhance the northeasterly wind flow which may occur within the week. This, and the trough of the tropical cyclone, will bring rains over Extreme Northern Luzon and the eastern section of Luzon beginning today or on Tuesday. A Weather Advisory may be issued over the next days as MARCE moves closer towards Northern Luzon. Severe Winds Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 may be hoisted over portions of Cagayan tonight or tomorrow morning. The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of MARCE is Wind Signal No. 4.Furthermore, northeasterly wind flow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):Today (4 November): Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Aurora, and the northern portion of Quezon.Tomorrow (5 November): Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Aurora, Quezon, and Camarines Norte.Wednesday (6 November): Ilocos Region, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:Up to 3.5 m: The seaboard of Batanes.Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Isabela, northern Aurora; the eastern seaboard on mainland Cagayan.Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:Up to 2.5 m: The remaining seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Aurora; the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands.Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Ilocos Region; the seaboards of northern Quezon and Camarines Norte; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes and Northern Samar; the eastern seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar. Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.A Gale Warning will likely be hoisted over the seaboard of Northern Luzon tomorrow.TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOKMARCE is forecast to move generally west northwestward today until tomorrow (5 November) before turning westward at a slow pace over the Philippine Sea east of Extreme Northern Luzon. On the forecast track, MARCE will make landfall in the vicinity of Babuyan Islands or mainland northern Cagayan on Thursday evening (7 November) or Friday (8 November) early morning. Due to uncertainty in the strength of the high pressure area north of MARCE, the forecast track may still change and bring the landfall point to mainland Cagayan-Isabela area.This tropical cyclone is expected to gradually intensify and may reach severe tropical storm category tonight or tomorrow (5 November) morning. Furthermore, it may also reach typhoon category by tomorrow evening or Wednesday early morning. Rapid intensification is likely.

PAGASA