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Hydrologic Outlook issued February 13 at 5:38PM EST by NWS Gaylord MIESFAPXTHE SPRING 2025 FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN INDICATES ANEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING DUE TO SNOW MELTWITHIN MAJOR EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN RIVERBASINS.THIS OUTLOOK COVERS CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES IN EASTERNUPPER MICHIGAN WHICH INCLUDES THE PINE RIVER BASIN...AND THENORTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN ENCOMPASSING THE AU SABLE...BOARDMAN...MANISTEE...RIFLE...AND TOBACCO RIVER BASINS.THE FIRST TABLE BELOW LISTS THE PROBABILITIES OF REACHINGFLOOD STAGE (MINOR FLOODING)...AS WELL AS MODERATE AND MAJORFLOOD LEVELS FOR THE SIX FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE GAYLORDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THECURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIMEPERIOD.CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORYBASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORYBASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS: THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDINGTHAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS: THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDINGTHAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL....TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING: FLOOD CATEGORIES: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)CATEGORICAL :FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJORLOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---:MANISTEE RIVERSHERMAN 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 54 12 7 <5 <5 <5:BOARDMAN RIVERMAYFIELD--BROWN B 7.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5:AU SABLE RIVERRED OAK 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 40 12 8 <5 <5 <5:RIFLE RIVERSTERLING 6.0 11.0 13.0 : 65 63 <5 <5 <5 <5:PINE RIVERRUDYARD 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5:TOBACCO RIVERBEAVERTON 12.0 14.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5LEGENDCS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATIONFT = FEETDEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS THE DIFFERENCEBETWEEN THE CURRENT PROJECTED CHANCE FOR REACHING FLOOD STAGE (CS)AND THE CLIMATIC NORMAL (HS). FOR EXAMPLE...THE MANISTEE RIVER NEARSHERMAN...WITH A FLOOD STAGE OF 15 FEET...HAS A 54 PERCENT CHANCE OFREACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE...WHICH IS 42 PERCENTAGE POINTSABOVE NORMAL. DURING THE 90 DAY PERIOD LISTED...THE TYPICALPROBABILITY OF THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS12 PERCENT.THE NEXT TABLE SHOWS THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION COULDRISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD (HIGH FLOWFORECAST):...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGESAT SPECIFIC LOCATIONSVALID PERIOD: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------:MANISTEE RIVERSHERMAN 14.2 14.3 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.1:BOARDMAN RIVERMAYFIELD--BROWN B 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.5:AU SABLE RIVERRED OAK 5.4 5.8 6.1 6.8 7.5 7.8 8.2:RIFLE RIVERSTERLING 4.8 5.0 5.6 6.6 8.0 8.9 9.4:PINE RIVERRUDYARD 8.4 9.2 10.3 11.6 13.1 14.4 15.6:TOBACCO RIVERBEAVERTON 5.8 6.0 6.3 6.8 7.6 8.7 9.3CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE AREAROUND 50 PERCENT ON THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN...THE AU SABLERIVER NEAR RED OAK...AND THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING. ELSEWHERE THEPROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE IS LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.THE LAST TABLE INDICATES THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATIONCOULD FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD (LOWFLOW FORECAST):...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGESAT SPECIFIC LOCATIONSVALID PERIOD: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------:MANISTEE RIVERSHERMAN 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7:BOARDMAN RIVERMAYFIELD--BROWN B 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1:AU SABLE RIVERRED OAK 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6:RIFLE RIVERSTERLING 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1:PINE RIVERRUDYARD 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1:TOBACCO RIVERBEAVERTON 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH INORDER TO GIVE ADVANCE NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE LONG RANGEPROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES CONTAIN FORECASTVALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...AND INCORPORATE CURRENTRIVER LEVELS...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATEREQUIVALENT VALUES...AND BOTH 30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS FOR TEMPERATUREAND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NOAA/NWS CLIMATE PREDICTIONCENTER. ACTUAL RIVER CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK IFFUTURE CONDITIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST CONDITIONS...OR IF ICE JAMS DEVELOP....CURRENT CONDITIONS...ABOVE NORMAL SNOWFALL AND SNOWPACK IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE ABOVENORMAL FLOOD PROBABILITIES AT SEVERAL GAGING LOCATIONS ACROSSNORTHERN MICHIGAN.PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SUMMER MONTHS (JUNE-AUGUST) WASGENERALLY FROM 75 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ACROSS EASTERN UPPERMICHIGAN JUNE WAS THE WETTEST MONTH OF THE SUMMER WITHPRECIPITATION 150 TO 200+ PERCENT OF NORMAL...THINGS STARTED TODRY OUT IN JULY WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL THOUGH MOST AREASRECEIVED AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION. A SIMILARTREND WAS NOTED IN AUGUST. PRECIPITATION DURING THE FALL(SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER) STARTED BELOW NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER (LESS THAN50 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH SOME AREAS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT OFNORMAL) AND OCTOBER (25 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL). BUT NOVEMBERPRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...MORE THAN 200PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND IN THEHIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ANTRIM/WESTERN OTSEGO/NORTHWEST KALKASKACOUNTIES MAINLY DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT DURINGTHANKSGIVING WEEKEND.DECEMBER PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS...WITH THEHEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (150 TO 200+ PERCENT OF NORMAL)CONCENTRATED OVER THE TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWAREAS. TRAVERSE CITY RECORDED ITS SECOND SNOWIEST DECEMBER ONRECORD (48.2 INCHES)...GAYLORD ITS FOURTH SNOWIEST DECEMBER (57.9INCHES)...AND HOUGHTON LAKE ITS 9TH SNOWIEST (23.4 INCHES).JANUARY 2025 PRECIPITATION WAS DEPENDENT ON LOCATION RELATIVE TOTHE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN SNOWBELT AREAS. PRECIPITATIONDEPARTURES OF 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL OCCURRED MAINLY BETWEENGRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST LOWERMICHIGAN (BOUNDED ROUGHLY BY M-68 AND M-72 TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHRESPECTIVELY)...THE TYPICAL LAKE MICHIGAN SNOW BELT REGIONS.PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES OF 100 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL OCCURREDOVER NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY. SAULTSTE. MARIE RECORDED THEIR SECOND SNOWIEST JANUARY ON RECORD (58.4INCHES).AS OF FEBRUARY 14TH...TOTAL SEASONAL SNOWFALL AT SAULT STE.MARIE...GAYLORD...AND TRAVERSE CITY HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED THEIRNORMAL SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL. HOWEVER ALL MAJOR CLIMATE SITESHAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS THUS FAR RUNNING 100 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMALFOR THE SEASON...EXCEPT FOR ALPENA AT 88 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LIQUIDEQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS MONTH IS RUNNING ABOVENORMAL FOR MOST AREAS...WITH 200 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSSINTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER FROM M-55 NORTH TO M-32.SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERNLOWER MICHIGAN (NORTH OF M-32) AND IN THE 20TH TO 30TH PERCENTILEELSEWHERE. STREAMFLOWS ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN RIVERS ARE BELOWNORMAL ON THE AU SABLE AND MANISTEE RIVERS...AND NEAR NORMALELSEWHERE WITHE FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS DUE TO ICE ACTIVITY.LINGERING D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OFOSCODA...ALCONA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW...IOSCO...GLADWIN...ANDARENAC COUNTIES.D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OFPRESQUE ISLE...LEELANAU...MONTMORENCY...ALPENA...BENZIE...GRANDTRAVERSE...KALKASKA...CRAWFORD...MANISTEE...WEXFORD...ANDMISSAUKEE COUNTIES....WEATHER OUTLOOK...THE CURRENT CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARYIS LEANING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMALPRECIPITATION.THE OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING (MARCH THROUGH MAY) INDICATES NODISCERNIBLE TREND WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES (EQUALPROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE... NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMALPRECIPITATION)....AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMALPRECIPITATION...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY27, 2025. LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS SUCH AS THOSE GIVENIN THE ABOVE TABLES ARE ISSUED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF EACH MONTHTHROUGHOUT THE YEAR.VISIT WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/APX ALL LOWER CASE) FOR MORE RIVERINFORMATION...INCLUDING GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILISTIC INFORMATIONGIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES...AS WELL AS THE LATEST OBSERVEDCONDITIONS ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN STREAMS.

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